Some thoughts on Iran
Iraq was a totalitarian state. Iran is an authoritarian state. You think Iran allows semi-free elections (albeit between mullah vetted candidates) which Iraq under Saddam did not do, cause the Mullahs have read Burke and Aristotle and believe in limited democracy? Nah, its cause theyre afraid if they dont allow enough room to vent, they will fall.
If unemployment raises significantly they will face some very serious dilemmas. That can be achieved with sanctions far lighter than those imposed on Iraq.
Most Iranians support having nuclear weapons, hardliners and reformers alike. If we impose sanctions or invade them it’ll just stir up patriotic fervor and unite all sides of the political spectrum in Iran into more radicalism and anti-Americanism/westernism.
Iran isn’t as ethnically/religiously divided and bitter as Iraq, it won’t devolve into civil war, they’ll unify against us. We should be doing what we can behind the scenes to support reform movements within Iran. The Mullahs aren’t as hands on as most people say, the democratically elected government has a lot of leeway. I’m sure that if the President didn’t have much of a desire to get nukes then Iran wouldn’t.
Actually there was a pretty strong reform movement just a few years ago. Sadly the United States decided it would be a good idea to conquer Iran’s neighbors, surround it militarily and include it in the axis of evil. So understandably that scared the crap out of Iran and they elected a hardliner who promised to protect them. Comparing the situation of its fellow axis of evil members, Iraq and North Korea the most obvious lesson to be learned is that Saddam’s greatest sin is that he didn’t actually have nukes, whereas we don’t dare invade North Korea since they have a nuclear deterrent. Obviously Iran wants to be safe from US invasion as well.
So what can be done now that everything is fucked up? Good question.
A few thoughts… Work with Iran on stitching Iraq back together (like that commission suggested). Develop some better relations that way. Elect someone new in ‘08 who doesn’t scare the bejeezus out of the world. Get our troops the heck out of Iraq (while somehow leaving it a successful, stable, and hopefully democratic country (yea, yea, waaay tougher than it looks)).
Maybe enact some very limited and specific sanctions on Iran only dealing with nuclear weapon systems and materials. But do everything through the UN. Do what we have to to get China & Russia on board. Take invasion off the table completely. Obviously it isn’t going to happen anyhow, we are too bogged down in Iraq, so why hold onto a toothless threat? Put a non-invasion pledge on the table and use it to negotiate concessions regarding nukes.
Beef up Radio Free Iran (if such a thing exists). Restore official relations with Iran, do some student exchanges, cultural understanding and let our relations thaw. Let Iranians see our softer side, teach them the value of real democracy and let things run their course. I firmly believe Iran isn’t as bad off as everyone makes them out to be. Any country where the opposition is brave enough to heckle and disrupt the President’s speech and the government is tolerant enough to not put those people to death or throw them into a dank cell for 50 years is an incredibly far cry from totalitarianism and wouldn’t measure up to the label of authoritarian either imho.
If all fails and they get close to getting nukes anyhow, well the fail safe is that Israel will just bomb them on their own. Let them take the heat, the main reason for opposing Iranian nukes is to protect Israel anyhow, so let them tend to their own defense instead of us always taking the heat for them. It isn’t like the Muslim world is going to hate them any worse than they already do. Plus, with the growing Sunni-Shi’ite divide, who knows, maybe some Arab countries will be relieved that Israel bombed Iran.
October 16th, 2007 at 9:11 pm
Holy crap posting on oneandfour.
Anyway, I think that a lot of people would have a hell of a time coming to terms with the idea of normal diplomatic relations with Iran. Sure, the hostage crisis was a long time ago, but people aren’t over it. I agree that we are the main cause of the current problem with them, and we could do a lot of good just by backing off, telling them we’re not going to invade them, and using that to negotiate. I don’t think we should establish an embassy there though, at least yet.